SIGNALOS Analyst

Three things matter most today.

1. Energy / sanctions — OFAC's designation of 38 vessels in the Russian shadow fleet is the most material physical-market event of the week. Brent +2.4%, IOC has already paused two cargoes (Bloomberg, ~1h ago, **Developing**). Watch India's response by Friday — that's the swing factor.

2. Rates — FOMC minutes confirmed the higher-for-longer base case. 10y at 4.55%, the steepest weekly move since April. The market had been too dovish; expect continued dollar bid into Powell's remarks at 14:00 ET.

3. Taiwan — 38 PLA aircraft overnight is the largest single-day incursion in six weeks. Pattern matches August '24 pre-exercise posture. Not yet pricing into broad risk, but semis and JPY are the early tells.

Confidence: High on (1) and (2). Moderate on (3) — could be exercise posturing rather than escalation.

What I'd watch next: Indian refiner statements, 30y auction tail, PLA Navy sortie out of Ningbo.

Counterview worth noting: A subset of desks read the Fed minutes as less hawkish than headlines suggest, pointing to two members who explicitly mentioned downside labor risks. If Friday's claims print soft, the rates move partially unwinds.