AI scenario engine · probability-weighted

Scenarios

Eastern Europe

Ukraine / Russia

  • Frozen conflict42%
    Slow EU normalization, sanctions sticky
  • Negotiated ceasefire18%
    Rally in EU equities, EUR bid
  • Escalation to NATO border8%
    Severe risk-off, defense bid
  • Continued attrition32%
    Status quo, energy volatility
Middle East

Israel / Lebanon / Iran

  • Ceasefire holds50%
    Risk premium fades
  • Localized escalation30%
    Brent +5-8%
  • Iran direct involvement12%
    Brent +20%, severe risk-off
  • Broader regional war8%
    Critical scenario
East Asia

Taiwan Strait

  • Exercise only55%
    Brief risk-off, fades
  • Sustained quasi-blockade22%
    Severe semis premium, JPY bid
  • Diplomatic de-escalation18%
    Risk-on, CNY relief
  • Kinetic incident5%
    Critical scenario
Red Sea

Yemen / Bab el-Mandeb

  • Status quo58%
    Sticky freight premium
  • Gradual normalization22%
    Container rates ease
  • Major shipping casualty12%
    Sharp insurance spike
  • Coalition expansion8%
    Marginal de-escalation