Composite scoring · live

Geopolitical Risk Index

Eastern Europe

Ukraine / Russia

severe
Sustained drone exchange; energy infra targeted into winter
Escalation64/100
Middle East

Israel / Lebanon / Iran

high
Fragile ceasefire holds; intermittent border exchanges
Escalation48/100
East Asia

Taiwan Strait

high
Largest PLA aircraft incursion in six weeks
Escalation38/100
Red Sea

Yemen / Bab el-Mandeb

high
Houthi drone activity continues; coalition intercepts
Escalation35/100
Sahel

Mali / Niger / Burkina Faso

moderate
Junta consolidation, Russian PMC presence growing
Escalation28/100
South China Sea

Philippines / China

moderate
Standoff at Second Thomas Shoal; resupply tensions
Escalation24/100
Korean Peninsula

DPRK / ROK

moderate
DPRK satellite launch attempt within 30-day window
Escalation22/100
Latin America

Venezuela / Guyana

moderate
Essequibo rhetoric escalates; military posturing observed
Escalation26/100